Six Prediz fans predicted Kruger United against Richards Bay on Saturday night. Not one of them got the result. The most common call was a 1-2 away win, and the match finished 3-1 to Kruger, a scoreline SuperSport described as a clutch win for the hosts.
That is a complete wipeout, and it is worth sitting with for a second. Richards Bay are bottom of the Betway Premiership with three points from nine matches. They have been the worst team in the division by the table all season. Fans still went to them for an away win. It is the oldest trap in predicting: you look at a struggling side, you decide they are due, and the league tells you again that form is not a debt anybody is collecting.
The bottom of the table is tighter than the top. Siwelele are 14th on six points, Marumo Gallants 15th on five, Richards Bay 16th on three. Three points separate the whole relegation conversation, which is the same gap that separates Sundowns, Pirates and AmaZulu at the summit. Gallants dragged themselves back into it by beating Siwelele 3-2 on Friday, a result only one of seven fans saw coming, and now sit a single point behind the side they beat.
Wednesday puts all three of them on the same card. Richards Bay host Stellenbosch, Siwelele host Orlando Pirates, and Marumo Gallants travel to Golden Arrows. Four Prediz fans have predicted each of those three so far.
Arrows against Gallants is the one that actually decides something down there. Arrows are the side closest to the relegation picture from above and Gallants are the side with momentum from below. Pirates away is the hardest night of the three, and Siwelele being asked to stop the team on 25 points from nine is not a fixture most cards will treat kindly.
The lesson from Saturday is narrow: stop predicting recoveries for Richards Bay until they give you a reason. Nine matches, three points, and six fans went down with one guess. When you fill in the Wednesday card, let the bottom three earn your optimism rather than inherit it.